You did not determine Candidate A or Candidate B. You did not determine Yes or No in the referendum. For example, in video poker, there are nine odds of a result – Royal Flush, Quads, Full House, Flush, Straight, Trips, Two Pair, High Pair, Nothing. Unlike determining where it is a person, one note, the same does not apply to the outcome of the game. However, the meaning of mathematics is still in the game. When we say the game has a 99% return, we say it’s a long time. But how long will it take? This is related to the game.
How likely are we to make it up to a long-term return? How about short time results? These are all great questions that can be answered with numbers like our poll.
If you play video poker for an hour (800 hands), I can probably suggest the return could be 98% with a 95% confidence interval and a 2.2% error margin (I recently made all of these numbers for picture direction). Since Royal gives 2% of our return, some of these numbers are probably irrational.
The 800-handed sesion that has Royal will have a big return. All that would not fit down, Relative said. There are systems for conveying these numbers, ranging from mathematical forms to simulations. The more hands used in our example the tighter the range became. That is, if the margin of error shrinks and the confidence interval increases.
In political advice polls, this margin of error would be smaller if the polling company conducted the polls of several thousand people, not several hundred like many people. Certainly, it might cost them more, so they (as well as the public) seem to like this suggestion with a sizable margin of error. But that doesn’t make them wrong.